Yes, the open-source database market is still relatively small (roughly $200 million in 2007, according to Gartner). But when The Wall Street Journal starts paying attention (subscription required), it’s clear that the opportunity is huge. The Journal doesn’t get paid to be sentimental.
Regardless, as Arjen Lentz opines,
…(D)isruptive technology tends to not take over the incumbent’s market, but find or develop a completely new market, and indeed take over in that space. The question then is, does the incumbent’s market remain intact, or does it change/evolve naturally and perhaps shrink or even absolutely disappear over time. Generally, the market-dominant incumbent continues to survive in a niche (where they are obviously dominant, but no longer in the market overall). In short, the market changes and with it its rules and demands.
Leading this market transformation is Sun Microsystems. Open-source databases (PostgreSQL and, especially, MySQL) might get a significant boost from Sun’s involvement:
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